오는 9월 9일(수)에 예정된 수요세미나 일정을 안내드립니다.

- 일시 및 장소: 2026년 9월 9일 (수) 12:00 - 13:00, 다산경제관 32210호

- 발표자: 서재은 교수님 (성균관대학교)

- 논문 제목: Persistent Noise, Feedback, and Endogenous Optimism: A Rational Theory of Overextrapolation

- 초록: I develop a noisy rational expectations model with persistent noise. Firms learn about economic conditions from signals, and the noise in the signals is persistent rather than i.i.d. over time. Firms rationally account for the persistence of noise and update their interpretations of signals based on ex post observations of true economic conditions. I show that this process gives rise to a novel mechanism by which optimism arises endogenously, which in turn amplifies or dampens the effects of underlying shocks. In particular, this model can generate the delayed overreaction in firms' expectations documented in the literature when firms are better informed about idiosyncratic shocks relative to aggregate shocks. Moreover, strategic complementarity between firms and the resulting higher-order optimism strengthen this mechanism further. Finally, I empirically distinguish my theory from behavioral theories by exploiting the difference in the degree of overextrapolation between consensus and individual forecasts.