오는 4월 16일(목) 16시 30분에 예정된 세미나 및 앞으로의 목요세미나 일정을 안내드리고자 합니다.

- 일시: 2026년 4월 16일(목) 16:30-17:45

- 장소: 다산경제관 322211호

- 발표자 : Professor Ryan Chahrour

발표 제목: Exchange Rate Disconnect Revisited

Abstract:  We find that variation in expected US productivity explains over half of US dollar/G7 exchange rate fluctuations. These fluctuations reflect both partly-anticipated changes in productivity and noise that affects beliefs without affecting realized productivity. This “noisy news” is primarily related to medium-to-long-run TFP growth, and causes significant deviations from uncovered interest parity. Together, these disturbances generate several well-known exchange rate puzzles, including predictable excess returns, low Backus-Smith correlations, and excess volatility. We examine leading classes of open-economy models and find that the incomplete markets framework best matches the qualitative patterns we identify in the data.