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11월 12일에 예정된 수요세미나 안내 드립니다.

일시 및 장소 : 2025년 11월 12일(수) 12:00 ~ 13:00, 다산경제관 32210호

발표자 : 성 원 (한국은행)

논문제목 : Transition Dynamics and Determinants of Global Fertility Rates: Evidence from Panel and Machine Learning Methods

초록 :

This study investigates the determinants of fertility rates within the context of the global demographic transition. Our primary objective is to pinpoint the key factors contributing to the decline in global fertility rates. Recognizing the complex dynamics of fertility, we initially explore heterogeneous transition patterns across different country groups, with an emphasis on the timing and pace of fertility decline. A notable approach employs the Gompertz population growth model, which effectively captures the nonlinear and abrupt reductions in fertility observed in specific groups. We further analyze the impact of global and group-specific factors using Dynamic Factor Models (DFMs). Our findings confirm significant comovements of fertility rates within the inflection groups, despite considerable differences in transition paths across these groups. To examine the major determinants of the declining global fertility rates, we start with panel estimations that account for cross-sectional dependence, utilizing the global and group factors estimated from the DFM. Results from these panel analyses indicate that significant determinants of fertility vary across heterogeneous groups. To delve deeper into the relative importance of these determinants, we apply Machine Learning (ML) techniques. The ML results consistently indicate that urbanization and female education are the most influential factors driving fertility reduction, followed closely by women’s labor force participation. These elements collectively reflect the competitive environment that urbanization and economic development foster. We then introduce a theoretical model to interpret these empirical findings, incorporating an explicit urbanization parameter into Becker’s (1960) classic Quantity-Quality (Q-Q) framework. This extended model illustrates how urbanization influences fertility through three main channels: increased child-rearing costs, higher household incomes, and shifting parental preferences toward quality over quantity. Collectively, these mechanisms underscore urbanization as the primary driver of the global decline in fertility rates. Our findings carry significant policy implications: interventions that promote female education and enhance women’s labor market participation—while addressing the demographic pressures and social changes induced by urbanization—are essential for fostering a balanced and sustainable demographic future.

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