- 주제:Macroeconomic impacts of climate change: a semi-structural analysis of unexpected weather conditions in Korea
-Abstract: We empirically investigate the impact of unexpected weather conditions on macroeconomic activities. We identify structural shocks using vector autoregression and define unexpected weather conditions as forecast errors derived from a simple econometric forecasting model. The regression analysis linking structural shocks with unexpected weather conditions reveals that cold events, such as heating degree days, contribute to supply shocks, while storms and dust storms are associated with demand shocks. The unexpected weather conditions in the hot and cold events appeared to have only modest explanatory power for the demand shock. Our findings suggest that Korea has benefited more from mild winters than it has been negatively affected by very hot summers.