발전기금
[경제학과] 3월 28일 BK 목요세미나 안내
- 진하은
- 2024-03-28
이번 주 3월 28일 목요일에 예정된 목요세미나 일정 안내 드립니다.
- 일시: 2024년 3월 28일 (목) 16:30 - 17:45
- 장소: 경영관 33503호
- 발표자: 서현덕 교수님 (인하대학교)
- 주제: Long-run Effects of Super Low Fertility on Housing Markets
- Abstract: The total fertility rate (TFR) in Korea fell to the historically lowest value of 0.78, reaching the state of super low fertility, also similarly observed in other East Asian countries. We quantitatively assess future implications of super low fertility on housing markets using an overlapping generations (OLG) general equilibrium model, which features housing markets and demographic transitions. The results predict that while the current housing boom will continue in the near future, real housing prices will eventually decline after 2035 because of low fertility. Among government policies, increasing the housing supply or the birth rate can mitigate this long-term housing boom-bust cycle and is welfare-improving for currently young generations. Meanwhile, stricter caps on the LTV ratio are ineffective in stabilizing the housing cycle and welfare-reducing except for older generations.