발표자 최재림 교수님께서 미국에 계신 관계로 이번 세미나는 온라인으로만 진행할 예정입니다.
WebEx 주소는 이 전과 동일하게 접속하여주시면 되겠습니다. (송준 교수님 계정)
많은 참여 부탁드립니다.
- 일시 : 2021년 4월 2일 (금) 16:30 - 18:00
- 발표자 : 최재림 교수님 (하와이대)
- 주제 : Tariffs, Agricultural Subsidies, and the 2020 US Presidential Election: Unintended Consequences
This paper provides evidence on the unintended effects of US and Chinese agricultural trade policies on the 2020 US presidential election. In response to a series of US tariffs imposed on Chinese goods, China imposed retaliatory tariffs especially on US agricultural products. The US government then subsidized US farmers by providing direct payments through the Market Facilitation Program (MFP) to mitigate the Chinese retaliatory tariffs. Using the universe of actual county-level MFP disbursement data, we assess whether the incumbent strategically manipulated MFP payments in order to win votes in the 2020 presidential election. We document that Republican leaning counties, not swing states, saw an increase in the net MFP, providing a more nuanced picture of possible strategic manipulation. We then find that US agricultural subsidies overcompensated US voters in ways that led to an increase in the Republican vote share in the 2020 presidential election. Finally, we uncover evidence that China’s retaliatory trade policy and US agricultural policy unexpectedly exacerbated political polarization in the US, especially the rural-urban divide.